Chip C. Woltz
2 min readAug 15, 2024

I'm sorry, but this essay seems to depend on a very poor analysis of the situation. De-growth (of population, of consumption, of industries, of transportation, of mining, etc.) is not a choice, but a result. Humans are currently in a state of massive overshoot, and we are consuming our one-time inheritance of fossil fuels, and our easy-to-mine elements at a break neck pace. We are exhausting and polluting the oceans and the land. As we begin to run out of oil with an acceptable EROI during the next decades, we will necessarily enter a period of de-growth and de-population. This is entirely 100% unavoidable. If we are foolish and resolve not to protect any oil reserves for future generations (that is, if we try to squeeze every drop we can find from tar sands, shale, the Arctic, Antarctica, etc.) and due to this foolishness, we raise the CO2 content in the atmosphere to ever higher levels with unknown consequences, we may buy humanity another couple of decades of "growth" or "stagnation". But there are much wiser paths to follow. In any event, no matter what we do, de-growth is coming with a vengeance --- and you are correct when you note that with de-growth comes the collapse of virtually everything. But this is not a choice ---- the future world will likely have under 1 B people, there will be local communities leading simpler lives with limited energy supplies. Think more like the year 1000 rather than the year 2000. There are some ways to moderate or manage the rate of de-growth to increase the chances of a slightly softer landing, but we would need wise global, national and local leadership to implement these policies, and no one is expecting wise leadership to happen on planet Earth any time soon. Drill baby drill --- no problems here!

There are hundreds of great resources on the coming de-growth. I would recommend: Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet by Dr. Thomas Murphy (this amazing book is free on line). Retropopulationism by Albert Bates, and perhaps the most recent 50 year update of the MIT / Club of Rome "Limits to Growth" modeling.

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