The Real (Strategic) Problems with Electronic Vehicles
About one year ago, I invested in my first EV. It is a Ford Mustang Mach E, and in many respects is the the most wonderful car I have ever owned. It handles beautifully, it is very smooth and quiet, has amazing acceleration, the safety and techno features are superb, and it is very simple and inexpensive to operate. This car was eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit, so the initial capital cost was somewhat below that of a comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) car. I charge the car in my garage for about $0.13 per kWh, so my driving cost is about three to four cents per mile. It is also nice to know that in my area, about half of my power is generated by nuclear fission, so only about half of the power I use is from fossil fuels. There is no oil to change, no spark plugs, and none of the other worries and hassles of an internal combustion engine. I have a “frunk” in the front for storage (where the engine would usually be) and a hatchback in the rear. For local driving, it is difficult to imagine why everyone does not buy a Mustang Mach E, or one of the comparable EVs of a different brand.
Somehow, buying an EV has become a political issue. There is an illogical resistance to the idea of EVs among some people. Republicans in Wyoming recently were considering a resolution to phase out EVs. Some folks make it clear that they have a God-given right to a massive pick up truck or SUV running on gas or diesel, and think EVs are “woke” and silly. When I first got my EV, I heard many comments like:
“Has your battery exploded yet?” According to NTSB data EVs are 61 times less likely to catch fire than ICE vehicles, and EV safety continues to improve. As battery technology improves, the risk of fire is likely to be further reduced. Data also shows that in the event of a fire, the passengers have more time to exit an EV than an ICE vehicle.
“Most of us can’t afford an expensive EV.” My Mach-E cost less to buy, and costs less to operate than comparable ICE cars. Volkswagen has just announced a new model that they plan to offer for $26,600. So initial cost will not really be a barrier to EVs.
“Have fun sitting around waiting for your car to charge.” About once a week, my car will charge at night starting at 11 pm and charging for about 3 hours. This generally is all that is needed for a week’s worth of driving locally. If we want to drive more, we plug it in another night. I probably shouldn’t admit this, but I enjoy it when I drive past people filling up with gasoline at a gas station.
“I’ll never drive an EV.” Well, maybe some people will choose to stay with ICE cars until death do they part, but their children and grandchildren will definitely be driving EVs. EVs are the only logical next step as humanity begins our “Great Transition” away from a civilization dependent on fossil fuels towards a civilization that can be sustainable.
The burning of hundreds of millions of years worth of organic matter in a few short years is releasing massive quantities of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) into our fragile atmosphere. This CO2 is trapping infrared radiation before it can radiate into space, and therefore, it is warming the planet. This is easy to calculate, and very easy to comprehend. However, some people chose to not accept the science behind the calculations, or they simply don’t care, and decide to deny the concept that burning trillions of barrels of oil could possibly result in a changing climate. But whether humans decide to accept the science of climate change or not, we will run out of fossil fuels. Globally, at current use rates, proven oil and gas reserves will last about 60 years. If we continue to drill in new areas and find new reserves, perhaps this can be stretched out a bit. But even it we have 100 more years of fossil fuels, this is not very long considering that Homo sapiens has been around for about two or three hundred thousand years. During the last few decades that we continue to have access to fossil fuels, humans should plan carefully to save the remaining fossil fuels for the most critical applications. One critical application is to use some of this available energy to help us transition to non-fossil fuel technologies. This global transition will require a huge amount of energy, and if we squander the fossil fuels we have left, we will be caught in what Tom Murphy calls, “the energy trap”. This is the concept that society uses all of our fossil fuels and does not think to save enough to provide the needed energy to make the transition from fossil fuels to new technologies.
So what are the concerns about electronic vehicles? It is helpful to think in terms of tactical issues that will be solved by additional research, engineering, funding and governmental regulations. These tactical issues are mostly evolutionary improvements that will build on what is already happening. It is equally important to consider the strategic issues that require detailed planning and a larger societal effort.
The Tactical Issues of EVs
An EV adds time to a long trip: Please note that above I referenced that I love my EV for local driving. I also love it for driving on long trips, but honestly, I love it less. The reason is that we are in the early days of EVs, and there are some issues with battery range and public chargers. None of these issues are deal breakers, but if you are going to take an EV on a long trip, you will need to do a small amount of pre-planning, and you will need to have some patience, since you will indeed need to charge your EV from time to time. A trip that may take 11 hours in an ICE vehicle could take 13 hours in an EV.
Battery Range: Most of the EVs today have battery ranges around 250 miles plus or minus 100 miles. However, that is if you are fully charged to 100% to begin your trip, and it does not account for things like a fully loaded car, a trailer, cold weather, rain, and so on. Furthermore, when you charge on the road, you may choose to charge only to 80%, since it takes more time to charge to 100%. This may mean that after your first stop, you will be stopping more frequently for the remainder of the trip. This is not a problem, but you will need patience.
The current EV batteries are quite amazing. However, rapid progress continues to be made with various battery designs. Many companies are in a race to find the right combination of range, power, quick charging, longevity, recyclability, cost, weight and safety. Articles appear frequently about solid state batteries, LFP batteries, sodium Ion batteries, lithium silicon, lithium silicon graphite, lithium sulfur batteries, carbon nanotube batteries, zinc-air batteries, aluminum-air batteries and others. I expect that over the next few decades, there will continue to be significant advances in battery technology, resulting in longer ranges, faster charging times, longer life, easier recycling, better safety and lower cost.
Public Chargers: There are many companies that offer public chargers. They are all a bit different and often require some thought. For example, maybe you want to stop at Electrify America chargers. If you do this often, you will want to download the app and join their club to save about 30% on the cost of power. Or maybe you want to download EVgo or Chargepoint. With a Ford, you can use the Blue Oval network. Each approach comes with pros and cons, and results in different power costs. In the US, the government has committed to adding 500,000 new high speed chargers around the country. This will definitely eliminate the need for pre-planning as people hit the roads in EVs. The government will need to require simplification and standardization so that pulling off the road to charge your battery is as quick and trouble free is filling up with gas. The cost of charging on the road today is much more expensive than charging at home. If you pay the highest power costs while on the road, it is about the same cost per mile as gas costs for an ICE vehicle. As more chargers become available, and as they are used more frequently to charge all of the new EVs, I expect the cost of charging on the road to more closely approach the cost of home charging.
Today’s chargers are a strange collection of random chargers often located in inconvenient places, like the corner of a large parking lot near the dumpsters. The current system works, but this will certainly need to change. Future chargers will need to be at easy on/easy off stations like today’s gas stations. The chargers will need to be covered from the sun and rain. The station will need to offer windshield fluid and squeegees, air for the tires, bathrooms, drinks and snacks, garbage cans and everything else you would expect from a typical gas station today. This process is already starting, and will continue over the next decade or so.
Scarcity of Raw Materials: EVs and their batteries require many raw materials to build. This is definitely a concern when we talk about replacing hundreds of millions of ICE cars and trucks that are on the roads today. The selection of the right battery chemistry and design, along with development of robust re-use and recycling programs will allow the transition from ICE cars to EVs.
Reuse and Repurpose: EVs are really just in the very early stages. Although GM introduced the EV1 in California in 1998, modern EVs did not really begin until Tesla introduced the Roadster in 2008 and the Model S in 2012. The Chevy Volt came along in 2008 and the Nissan Leaf in 2010, but serious EVs really began in 2017 with the Chevy Bolt and the Tesla Model 3. By 2021, Ford released the Mach E and Hyundai introduced the Ionic 5. By 2023, nearly every car company is promoting multiple EV models. Not too many EVs have reached the point yet where the battery needs to be replaced. But that day will come before we know it. When batteries are no longer suitable for powering a car, they are still terrific batteries for other energy storage applications. Ideally, the next step for EV batteries should be in another application, such as storage of power in a home or storage of power from a solar farm. To make this happen will require government regulations and direction, while the manufacturers will need to reach a level of standardization that is unthinkable at the current time. This is an area that may take decades to iron out, but eventually car batteries will routinely be removed from cars and put into use in a secondary application prior to recycling. Today, something like 99% of all lead acid 12 V batteries used in ICE cars are recycled. We will definitely need to recycle all batteries used in EVs, and this will require much planning, regulation and new infrastructure.
Raw materials recovery and recycling: A big nightmare that I have is a future where every manufacturer has their own proprietary battery design. Each would have different elements (Li, Co, Ni, Cd, Fe, Si, P, S, Na, etc.), different voltages, different shapes, different configurations, and different encapsulations. This would make re-use and recycling difficult and expensive. So I hope, and assume, that as the technologies improve and mature, industry organizations and the worlds’ governments will require standardization, and make battery recycling mandatory. This is really the only way that EVs offer a future. I am encouraged by some baby steps in the US and in Europe along these lines. Redwood Materials is one of the early companies that is focused on this problem of battery recycling, but we have a long way to go as EVs ramp up and continue to evolve. This is a very serious problem, but one that should be straightforward to manage.
The Strategic Issues of EVs
Electricity production: In the US today, about 80% of our electric power comes from power plants driven by fossil fuels. Over time, this power generation will need to be converted to solar, wind and nuclear power. If we rapidly convert ICE vehicles to EVs, and if we then begin converting other modes of transportation like trucks, buses, and trains to electricity, and meanwhile if we convert gas stoves, water heaters, clothes driers and other appliances to electricity, well clearly this will require significantly more production of electricity. We may need double or triple the quantity of electric power that is produced today. This incredibly difficult shift away from fossil fuels will be possible by adding solar farms, wind farms and additional nuclear power (fission breeder reactors), but this will require a massive effort and related massive costs.
Electric grid and distribution: To move the electricity from the production sites to the consumers will require a much larger and more robust electricity grid. This will also require a massive effort and significant costs. In the US, the government will need to play a major role to drive the increase in electricity production and the upgrading of the national electrical grid. Fortunately President Biden signed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act which at least begins the process of upgrading the electrical grid and investing in some new electrical generation. The government will also need to reach agreement on permitting reform so that solar, wind and nuclear plants are not unnecessarily blocked or delayed, and so that new power lines can be installed where required. Today, if you were to announce the construction of a new solar farm, wind farm, nuclear plant or power lines in the US, there are well organized resistance groups ready to try to slow or stop your efforts.
The Great Transition: This is the really difficult part. Changing from a Ford Escape to a Ford Mustang Mach E is very easy. It requires no sacrifice and very little change in the status quo. Humanity has spent the last 200 years burning fossil fuels and stripping the land and seas of resources. As we look forward to the next 100 years, the next 500 years and the next 10,000 years, clearly we will need to completely change virtually everything we do today, and move towards sustainability. Our cities and towns will need to be redesigned to be walkable. Our homes and buildings need to be very energy efficient. We will need to change our travel modes to include more mass transit, and more public transport modes. EVs will get smaller, and we will see more use of bicycles, electric bikes, skateboards, one wheels, mopeds, scooters, rickshaws, golf carts, and similar “micro-mobility” transport modes. Energy and resource conservation and energy efficiency will be baked into everything we do. Do only what you must do, use only what you must use, and then do it as efficiently as possible.
So the phase out of ICE vehicles and conversion to EVs is a huge and important change for the planet. But in a very real sense, it is only the first baby step. When you trade in your gasoline powered Hummer for an electric Hummer, congratulations, step one is complete, but please understand that the problem is not solved, but only beginning.
Summary
Electronic vehicles are in their infancy, but already, they are quite spectacular. Solutions to the tactical issues posed by EVs are well underway, but huge improvements will continue to be made over the next decades. Scientists and engineers will continue to improve the batteries, governments and industry organizations will push towards standardization and simplicity for the drivers. A robust re-use and recycling system will be developed.
While we still have some fossil fuels remaining, we need to begin global strategic planning to invest in more renewable power generation, extensive upgrading of our electrical grids, and for the Great Transition, which includes re-designing our buildings, towns, transportation modes, and everything else about our civilization, with the ultimate goal of sustainability.
